Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 9.3 | 10.1% | 89 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 14.1 | 15.6% | 137 | 1.01% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 14.0 | 17.2% | 151 | 0.72% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 12.4 | 14.2% | 125 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 10.0 | 12.4% | 109 | 1.04% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 9.0 | 10.7% | 94 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 7.4 | 8.1% | 71 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 17 | 9.3 | 11.6% | 102 | 0.97% |
| All ages | 103 | 85.6 | 100% | 878 | 0.84% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | 28775 | 73261 | 671 | 172 | 1542 |
| Feb 03 | 28872 | 73304 | 671 | 172 | 1418 |
| Feb 04 | 28959 | 73471 | 673 | 173 | 1364 |
| Feb 05 | 29017 | 73551 | 675 | 173 | 1166 |
| Feb 06 | 29056 | 73599 | 676 | 173 | 1015 |
| Feb 07 | 29117 | 73642 | 675 | 175 | 874 |
| Feb 08 | 29220 | 73752 | 679 | 176 | 878 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | 17949 | 42027 | 666 | 167 | 862 |
| Feb 03 | 18020 | 42075 | 666 | 167 | 747 |
| Feb 04 | 18050 | 42156 | 666 | 167 | 679 |
| Feb 05 | 18096 | 42195 | 666 | 167 | 586 |
| Feb 06 | 18122 | 42223 | 666 | 167 | 529 |
| Feb 07 | 18147 | 42263 | 666 | 171 | 460 |
| Feb 08 | 18191 | 42309 | 666 | 171 | 454 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 5.6 | 10.4% | 47 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 3.6 | 7.9% | 36 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 7.4 | 15.9% | 72 | 1.01% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 8.4 | 17.2% | 78 | 0.93% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 7.3 | 17% | 77 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 5.0 | 11% | 50 | 0.52% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.7 | 9.9% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.3 | 10.4% | 47 | 0.66% |
| All ages | 44 | 45.6 | 100% | 454 | 0.7% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | 12987 | 28006 | 515 | 131 | 555 |
| Feb 03 | 13016 | 28028 | 515 | 131 | 528 |
| Feb 04 | 13041 | 28096 | 517 | 131 | 473 |
| Feb 05 | 13077 | 28129 | 518 | 131 | 423 |
| Feb 06 | 13090 | 28147 | 518 | 131 | 350 |
| Feb 07 | 13101 | 28166 | 518 | 131 | 279 |
| Feb 08 | 13125 | 28213 | 518 | 131 | 274 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.9 | 11.3% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.3 | 9.1% | 25 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 3.0 | 13.5% | 37 | 0.82% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.1 | 14.6% | 40 | 0.74% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.1 | 9.1% | 25 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4.0 | 13.5% | 37 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.9 | 13.5% | 37 | 0.58% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.6 | 15% | 41 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 24 | 25.0 | 100% | 274 | 0.61% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | 32905 | 89648 | 955 | 155 | 2154 |
| Feb 03 | 33007 | 89768 | 957 | 155 | 1837 |
| Feb 04 | 33117 | 90056 | 961 | 156 | 1628 |
| Feb 05 | 33148 | 90128 | 965 | 156 | 1360 |
| Feb 06 | 33183 | 90171 | 965 | 156 | 1152 |
| Feb 07 | 33279 | 90302 | 966 | 156 | 1066 |
| Feb 08 | 33395 | 90478 | 968 | 156 | 1109 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 15 | 12.7 | 12.9% | 143 | 1.21% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 15.0 | 15.4% | 171 | 1.03% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 15.1 | 14.3% | 159 | 0.75% |
| 30-39 | 24 | 13.7 | 14.5% | 161 | 1.18% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 11.7 | 13.1% | 145 | 1.07% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 11.9 | 11.5% | 127 | 0.9% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 11.7 | 10.6% | 118 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.6 | 7.6% | 84 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 116 | 99.6 | 100% | 1109 | 0.94% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | 116877 | 487037 | 2492 | 463 | 6763 |
| Feb 03 | 117382 | 487645 | 2493 | 463 | 6575 |
| Feb 04 | 117829 | 488394 | 2498 | 464 | 6085 |
| Feb 05 | 118131 | 488857 | 2500 | 464 | 5404 |
| Feb 06 | 118303 | 489186 | 2500 | 464 | 4651 |
| Feb 07 | 118599 | 489601 | 2491 | 464 | 4308 |
| Feb 08 | 119004 | 490284 | 2496 | 465 | 4185 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 79 | 68.0 | 17.5% | 734 | 1.22% |
| 10-19 | 76 | 68.4 | 16.8% | 703 | 0.99% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 76.9 | 19.2% | 803 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 53 | 57.9 | 15.4% | 646 | 0.84% |
| 40-49 | 50 | 47.3 | 12.5% | 522 | 0.8% |
| 50-59 | 27 | 30.9 | 7.8% | 326 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 25.6 | 6.1% | 256 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 19 | 19.9 | 4.6% | 194 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 405 | 394.7 | 100% | 4185 | 0.77% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | 1531337 | 4103223 | 60742 | 12600 | 61753 |
| Feb 03 | 1535404 | 4108258 | 60785 | 12600 | 58779 |
| Feb 04 | 1538895 | 4114964 | 60861 | 12667 | 53465 |
| Feb 05 | 1541381 | 4119037 | 60894 | 12667 | 46693 |
| Feb 06 | 1542751 | 4121754 | 60917 | 12669 | 39811 |
| Feb 07 | 1545059 | 4125779 | 60997 | 12739 | 35671 |
| Feb 08 | 1548219 | 4132266 | 61113 | 12786 | 34609 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 472 | 415.0 | 13.1% | 4529 | 0.71% |
| 10-19 | 408 | 407.3 | 12.7% | 4394 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 406 | 466.0 | 14.4% | 5001 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 492 | 510.3 | 16.1% | 5576 | 0.74% |
| 40-49 | 446 | 421.4 | 13.4% | 4635 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 358 | 382.3 | 12.1% | 4183 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 286 | 299.1 | 9.6% | 3325 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 290 | 280.3 | 8.5% | 2943 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 3160 | 3183.9 | 100% | 34609 | 0.59% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-03-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13698"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges